6 try Tigers keep Euro dream alive

A dominant Tigers performance kept our slim European hopes alive with a 6 try thrashing of an injury stricken Llanelli side.  Tries from Miles Benjamin, Jordan Crane, Adam Thompstone, Sam Harrison and a brace for Tom Youngs secured a 40-23 win for hosts.  Llanelli's tries came from prop Rob Evans and two late scores for wing Harry Robinson.

Tigers knew they needed the full 5 points.  I wish they needed 5 points every week.  Early indications were given when Tigers turned down the chance for 3 points and kicked the opening penalty to touch instead.  For the lineout Mulipola was withdrawn and fed for a rumble.  After gaining good front foot ball it was whipped away, Adam Thompstone's tight pass was crucial as Benjamin used his strength and trickery to beat two men for the finish.

Just 5 minutes later and Tigers again kicked an attacking penalty to the corner.  This time the pack kept the glory for themselves, rumbling forward for Jordan Crane to dot down.

Both tries were excellently converted by Freddie Burns.

Rhys Priestland had nibbled away at Tigers lead with two penalties to make it 14-6.  Tiger never make it easy for themselves though and just after coughing up a certain try, Ben Youngs' firing a bullet at Mulipola who was just a couple of feet from him and would surely have crashed over with a sympathetic pass, they found themselves down to 14 men.  Graham Kitchener was baffling yellow carded on the half way line and the Scarlets scored from their own maul, prop Rob Evans the beneficiary.

Into the second half and Tigers were still playing with ambition.  Croft and Kitchener combined on turnover ball inside our 22 to break out to half way, with Kitchener adding a glorious dink chip on the end.  Thompstone also made a strong break down the right and was rewarded on 46 minutes as he scored his first try since March 2014.  It came from an attacking move from a scrum.  Yes such things do still exist.  Llanelli were probably so surprised to see a first phase attack they didn't know what to do.

The bonus point was secured after the introduction of Ayerza and Tom Youngs saw the scrum go from secure to totally dominant.  A penalty at a scrum saw the ball kicked for the touchline.  Like the first half Tigers drove and were unstoppable.  This time Tom Youngs was sequestered at the back of the charging pack.

Youngs secured his first ever brace for the club 5 minutes later, picking a beautiful inside out line from his brother's snipe around the fringe of the ruck.

With the bonus point and match secure Tigers took their foot off the gas and allowed some excellent handling from Llanelli to slip Harry Robinson round the corner and in for a try.  Points difference is the new tie breaker this season for European Rugby, these late tries may still be the death of us.

Tigers struck one back through substitute Sam Harrison feeding off Robert Barbieri's break and pass before Robinson finished the scoring with another effort for the west Walians.

Tigers were impressive with Bai & Crane particularly to the fore.  If we can keep up the forward interplay of the last few weeks but combined with a more miserly defence we can still make a late season for the Premiership title.  Europe is in hit and hope territory.  Our best bets to better as second places all play after us next Sunday so we must simply win and win well.  If we are knocked out on a tie break then so be it.

Know your Enemy: Champions Cup Pool Stage 2014-15

Ulster

Founded: 1879
Ground: Kingspan Stadium (a.k.a. Ravenhill; Capacity: 18,196)
Star Man: Ruan Pienaar

Transfers:

In: Wiehahn Herbst (Natal Sharks), Ruaidhri Murphy (ACT Brumbies), Dave Ryan (Zebre), Franco van der Merwe (Gauteng Lions), Sean Reidy (Counties Manukau), Ian Humphreys (London Irish), Louis Ludik (Agen) 

Out: John Afoa (Gloucester), Tom Court (London Irish), Paddy McAllister (Aurillac), Adam Macklin (Rotherham), James McKinney (Rotherham), David McIlwaine (Leeds), Niall Annett (Worcester), Johann Muller (Retirement), Sean Doyle (ACT Brumbies), Stephen Ferris (Retirement), Ian Porter (Connacht), Paddy Wallace (Retirement), Chris Farrell (Grenoble) 

Ins: 7

Outs: 13

We meet again.  For the third time in four seasons we will be making a trip to Belfast to meet what has become our European nemesis.  Embarrassed in 2004, humbled in 2012 we were at least close in Belfast in 2013.  Some were happy when we settled for a bonus point defeat.

But the home leg.  Oh the home leg.  A win and Welford Road would've hosted its first European knock out game since 2007.  We were ten points up, 25 minutes to play.  Ruan Pienaar, that genius, that bloody minded never-say-die Afrikaner, inspired a huge comeback.  He scored all the points.  He charged down Flood.  He nailed his kicks.  Nobody was happy with that losing bonus point.

Their European campaign ended at the quarter finals after defeat to Saracens and a red card to full back Jared Payne.

Ravenhill opened in 1923; all 4 stands have been redeveloped in recent years.  It also bears a new name after a sponsorship deal with local building materials firm Kingspan.

Ulster have lost two southern hemisphere powerhouses from their pack as Johan Muller retires and John Afoa moves to Gloucester. Irish international prop Tom Court also moves on as does long serving centre Paddy Wallace.  

Ulster's recruitment for this season is headed by a trio of South Africans; prop Wiehahn Herbst, one cap wonder lock Franco van der Merwe and full back Louis Ludik all join from the rainbow nation.

The most telling loss might not be on the field.  Long serving Director of Rugby David Humphreys has left to join Gloucester, like Dean Richards he left the day to day coaching to others but his experience will be missed.

As well as talisman Pienaar Ulster posses British Lion Tommy Bowe on the wing and emerging Irish fly half Paddy Jackson.  Darren Cave is a classy centre with Ian Henderson a growing force in the pack.

Toulon

Founded: 1908
Ground: Stade Mayol (Capacity:15,400)
Star Man: Take your pick

Transfers:

In: Fabien Barcella (Biarritz), Simone Ferrari (Mogliano), Guilhem Guirado (Perpignan), Romain Taofifenua (Perpignan), Andy Cramond (Edinburgh), Gerhard Vosloo (Clermont), Jean-Baptiste Grenod (Aix-en-Provence), Mamuka Gorgodze (Montpellier), Eric Escande (Montpellier), Nicolas Durand (Perpignan), Jimmy Yobo (Aurillac), James O'Connor (London Irish), Leigh Halfpenny (Cardiff)

Out: Emmanuel Felsina (Lyon), Benjamin Noirot (Biarritz), Sébastien Bruno (Retirement), Pierrick Gunther (Lyon), Joe van Niekerk (Retirement), Jérémy Lenaerts (Narbonne), Jonny Wilkinson (Retirement), Quentin Lenfant (Albi), Alexis Palisson (Toulouse), Vincent Martin (Lyon), Dannie Russow (Retirement)

Ins: 13

Outs: 11

So you've just won back to back European Cups.  Your star full back, Delon Armitage, impresses again and signs new deal.  What's an aspirant club to do?

Obviously you sign Leigh Halfpenny.  Then James O'Conner.  Why have just one world class full back when you can have three?

Not content in the backrow with World Champion Juan Smith, All Black powerhouse Chris Masoe, Argentinean captain Juan Fernandez Lobbe and English Exile Steffon Armitage you go out and sign Mamuka Gorgodze, the Georgian Goliath.

They've lost Wilko though.

Toulon are funded by comic book magnate Mourad Boudjellal, though he claims the side is now self funding.  A scary prospect.  Boudjellal took over the side in May 2006 and promptly led them to relegation.  Promoted to the Top 14 on the second attempt the side only really started to hit the heights with the signing of Wilkinson.

It took 3 attempts to become French champions; losing finals in 2012 & 2013 before claiming the Bouclier de Brennus this year.  They were last champions in 1992; a 19 year old Yann Delaigue landed 2 drop goals to beat Biarritz in Serge Blanco's final game.

Tigers are no strangers to Toulon after visiting for the 2013 European Cup quarter final, a close 6 point defeat.  The Stade Mayol has a mythic property for the Toulonnais and the atmosphere can be electric, but is old and dangerous at times.  The stadium is an accident waiting to happen, two stands are accessed from a tiny side street with no room to move for hours before kick off.

Named for local music hall star Felix Mayol and opened in 1920 it is built entirely into the local city environment giving the ground its unique charm, atmosphere and making improvement all but impossible.  Mayol also gifted the club its emblem the Lily-of-the-valley (Convallaria majalis).

Toulon are coached by former French national team manager Bernard Laporte and have a galaxy of stars available to them.  Hayman, Castro, Bakkies Botha, Ali Williams, the back row mentioned above, Giteau, Bastareaud, Mermoz, Drew Mitchell, Habana.  Surely they have to get old sooner or later?

Llanelli Scarlets

Founded: 1875
Ground: Parc Y Scarlets (Capacity: 14,870)
Star Man: Rhys Priestland

Transfer:

In: Peter Edwards (London Welsh), Chris Hala'ufia (London Irish), Rory Pitman (Wasps), Regan King (Clermont), Harry Robinson (Cardiff)

Out: Gareth Thomas (Ospreys), Deacon Manu (Retirement), Sione Timani (Tarbes), Josh Turnbull (Cardiff), Aled Thomas (Gloucester), Olly Barkley (London Welsh), Jonathan Davies (Clermont), Nic Reynolds (London Welsh)

Ins: 5

Outs:8

Another familiar rival.  Leicester have faced Llanelli 71 times stretching back to October 1896.  Tigers have taken 29 victories to the Welshmen's 37 with 5 draws.  In the professional era Tigers have won 6 to Llanelli's 3, the last two meetings in the LV Cup going the way of Llanelli.

The politics of Welsh rugby require Llanelli to go by the name "Scarlets" alone and pretend to be formed in 2003.  But the roots of this club go back to Victorian era and include celebrated victories over touring international sides including the 1972 All Blacks and against World Champions Australia in 1992.

The club opened its new home Parc Y Scarlets in 2008, the modern stadium is built on an out of town retail park.  It boasts modern facilities but the home club struggles to fill its 14,870 capacity regularly in the Pro12.  

The club is also famed for the song Sosban Fach (Little Saucepan), a tribute to the traditional tin plating industry in the town.  The club also celebrates the industrial heritage of the town with saucepans adorning the top of the goal posts.

Llanelli are coached by Simon Easterby, husband of TV presenter Sara Elgan, the former Harrogate, Leeds and Ireland flanker represented the club 180 times.  

The top name of his current charges is Rhys Priestland, the Wales international fly half.  He will be reunited with centre Regan King who rejoins the Scarlets from Clermont.

Winger Jordan Williams, small and agile, had a breakout season in 2013/14 as did lock Jake Ball.  Much like Ed Slater Ball is English, ignored by the academy system and spotted playing rugby in Australia.

Llanelli beat Harlequins at the Stoop last season with an exhillerating counter attacking game, so will be as dangerous opponent as ever.  Question marks will however linger over the pack.

Anglo-Welsh Premiership: Can it cover the costs?

So we’ve heard a lot recently about the possibility of the Welsh regions, or perhaps their underlying clubs, joining an expanded Aviva Premiership.  Most people have chosen to evaluate the sporting case, which is reasonably sound, but what about the business case? 

We aren’t charities and the whole relationship with ERC fell apart because of their inability to finance the games rather than their merit.

First off what are we generating at the moment?  The BT deal has been said to be “worth up to £152m” leading to much speculation about various clauses.  Never underestimate the ability of Mark McCafferty to be stupid but from all corners it seems to be two deals, a Premiership deal and a potential European deal.

The previous Sky/ESPN deal was widely reported to be worth £54m over 3 seasons.  So £18m a season or £1.5m to each club per season.  The BT Deal’s premiership portion is said to be a 50% increase which would be £27m per season (£108m over the 4 years so fitting in the “up to” scenario), or £2.2m per club per season. 

Aviva paid £20m to sponsor the league for 4 seasons back in 2010 and last summer it was an announced they had extended their deal.  No numbers always make me sceptical and assume at best a plateauing of revenue.  McCafferty insists there is an increase in that deal but assuming not we still have £5m in the pot from Aviva.

As out lined in this article the ERC contributes roughly £630k to an English club.  This is why PRL can afford to be so bullish with ERC over its future.  ERC by starving us have made us self reliant.  The BT deal increase covers the ERC short fall and then some.  Of course we all want that cherry on top but it won’t make or break us.

Shortcutting the sums from the Tigers accounts we can see that PRL roughly distribute £3.5m to each club a season and that in any circumstance that should be in line to rise next season.

So, I hear you ask, what has this got to do with the Welsh clubs?  Well the Welsh clubs inclusion has to match or increase the amount PRL distribute to each club or it isn’t worth it.

So do the numbers add up?

Presuming a 16 team league, on whatever configuration you like, the numbers are steep.  PRL currently distributes around £40m each season it would have to find another c.£14m to fund these new teams without affecting the others central revenue.

The new BT deal pays £27m to show 3 games a week from 22 rounds of action plus the play offs, 69 games in total.  Or £392k per game.  Now here come some of the big assumptions.  If BT were happy to pay that rate for more content then the 8 extra rounds of fixtures would generate £9.408m.  That’s pretty close.  If we copied the French model of play offs with quarter finals between places 3 to 6 we’d have 2 more games and £10m to play with.

Wales has a population of 3m people, more than the North East but less than Yorkshire, but has higher levels of Rugby viewership than those regions making them more valuable to broadcasters.  BT would have their own focus groups but if we take just 1% of the population being motivated to sign up, or retain BT broadband, by this move that would see 30,000 paying customers for BT.  I think that is a reasonable estimate as it is lower than their combined average attendances and half the attendance the national team gets most games.  Based on a price of £30 per month, including line rental, that would yield £10.8m p.a.  to BT in broadband sales with customers signing up for BT Sport through other means at £12 a month on top.

Match ticket sales are an important source of revenue for clubs.  Rather surprisingly, if you follow certain people’s claims about the Heineken Cup, the Premiership has a higher average attendance than the Heineken Cup.  And if you think that is skewed by things like the derby with Saints or the Christmas fixture being Premiership games then consider that in the last two home games we sold almost 2,000 more tickets to see London Irish than for Montpellier.

A question would where does the LV Cup fit in all this?  The LV yields c.£500k in competition money, making it more valuable than the Heineken Cup per game, and crucially 2 home games.  Even with all the discounts, offers and Season Tickets Tigers would still expect to clear something like £500k from ticket & hospitality sales, per match, at the B grade prices.  More when you factor in merchandise and catering sales.

Losing the LV money and the extra game do make the figures trickier.  Will that c.£1m be recouped in higher attendances across the 4 new league games vs. the 3 Heineken Cup games and the 2 LV Cup games? 

You would expect the League games to achieve roughly 8% higher attendances than an equivalent Heineken Cup match and 23% higher than a LV Cup game based on recent seasons’ attendances.  Those figures would suggest not being able to cover the loss of game let alone the LV Cup competition money.

But then travel to Wales is significantly cheaper than transporting a squad of 23 players, plus spares, plus coaches and doctors, physios, their equipment etc etc all the way to Montpellier or Treviso.  Or even Belfast.  So there are savings to be made.

Reduced exposure in Europe would not be a positive for sponsorship sales and increased exposure in Wales would not make up for that.  But by covering the total number of games I think it is fair to call that revenue neutral without any harder data to back it up either way.  The home market is where the bulk of spending is targeted and that wouldn’t change; after all is Caterpillar or Goldsmith’s really paying us for one game a year in France?

So is there a business case for an expanded Premiership including Welsh sides?  There is if BT is willing to pay for it.  If the pot cannot grow to cover it then sadly we need to find other options.  Home games pay the bills and any solution needs at least 16 of them.  A 14 team Premiership with an enhanced Europe would be the best of both worlds, if only we can get all parties to agree with us.  

Scarlet Letter for Tigers

A second half collapse left Tigers embarrassed in Llanelli as they surrendered a four point lead at half time to lose 40-19.  First half tries from Waldrom, Forsyth and a penalty try were wiped out as Llanelli scored three tries of their own in a ten minute purple patch. 

The embarrassment was not only on the score board though as Tigers scrum disintegrated when young Ryan Bower and Fraser Balmain were introduced to the extent that Balmain was singled out, rather harshly, for a yellow card and the scrums reduced to uncontested as Stankovich and Mulipola were “injured”.  This is worrying either way; either they actually are injured or we’ve basically just wimped out of actually playing the game.  This was a good example of the influence of the second rows on the scrum, as much as I rate Harry Wells he won’t yet have the shoving power of Louis Deacon, after all when Deacon was 19 he didn’t have the power he does now.

The first half was actually pretty good from Tigers, though hardly one for the ages.  After finally getting our hands on the ball we won a penalty that Mat Tait pushed to the corner; the maul was set and Thomas Waldrom was powerfully driven over from 5 metres.  Persistent infringing kept Llanelli in the game and they had built a 12-5 lead by the next time Tigers had the ball in the Llanelli 22.  Hooker and captain Emyr Phillips was binned for coming in the side and dragging a maul down, then Andy Fenby was binned for deliberately knock on when Tigers had a 5 man over lap.  The referee would have been well within his rights to go under the posts there and then but it didn’t take long as one powerful scrum from Tigers saw the referee march under the posts.

The third try was very well worked.  Again a penalty was kicked to touch but this time the ball was used wide.  Waldrom and Chuter took it up before the ball went wide right to Goneva.  He broke a tackle and set up a ruck just inches short; Tigers went wide left this time and Llanelli were outnumbered, Andy Forsyth walking in untouched.

At half time both sides swapped a prop; Llanelli brought on Fijian captain Deacon Manu whilst for Tigers Fraser Balmain replaced Boris Stankovich.  This ended Tigers scrum dominance but the real problems didn’t emerge until Mulipola left the field injured and Ryan Bower found himself in the unfamiliar position of loosehead.  Rob Andrew was binned for taking a man out in the lineout, then Balmain was binned for persistent standing up in the scrum. 

This was when Llanelli decisively pulled away.  Their first try was very fortunate on two counts; first it came from a terrific counter ruck from Tigers, second the man who played the ball was part of the ruck and therefore offside.  With all our men committed to the ruck Llanelli were able to run it in unopposed.  The Welshmen’s second try was a simple cutting of an angle by full back Gareth Owen, slicing through the Tigers line and running in from 40 metres.  The third came just a couple of minutes later and will be one of Geordan Murphy’s less memorable moments of his 400 odd first class career.  A nothing kick through seemed to like it was just running into touch but centre Nick Reynolds didn’t give up on it and got a foot to it to keep it in.  Murphy now flat footed was beaten to the touch down and Tigers embarrassment was complete.

This was meant to be a dress rehearsal for London Welsh next week and keep the wining momentum up.  On those terms this game was a miserable failure.

Tigers name big guns for LV Cup shoot out

Tigers name a very strong side to face the Scarlets on Sunday in the hope that Wasps can do us a favour the day before and limit Sale to a win without a bonus point, Wasps have named a stronger side than last week and are defending an unbeaten record at Adams Park.  Tigers make 4 changes to the side that defeated Wasps as Sam Harrison is replaced by Micky Young, George Chuter replaces Rob Hawkins, Harry Wells replaces the injured Tom Price and Thomas Waldrom replaces Tom Croft after being released this week from the England squad.

On the bench Ryan Bower comes into the fold in place of Jonny Harris after featuring for Nottingham against Bedford last weekend.  George Oliver and Matthew Hubbart are in line to make their Tigers debuts, Oliver, 19, is an openside flanker from Hinckley who has featured for Rotherham this season whilst Hubbart, 18, has been an ever present in the Under 18s and gets his chance due to the spate of injuries and international call ups at lock.  At the other end of the experience scale Geordan Murphy makes his come back from injury in the number 23 shirt.

Andy Forsyth makes only his 15th start for the Tigers and will be looking to press his claims again after an impressive performance last week.  Sam Harrison will make it 40 appearances if he features from the bench whilst Richard Thorpe makes his 10th appearance in The Stripes.

Sunday's referee will be Greg Garner from Coventry.  It will be Garner's 6th Tigers game and only his second away game, the other when Tigers beat Bristol back in 2009 with Dan Cole scoring a brilliant individual try by bumping off Mark Regan and running in from 20 yards.  His last Tigers game was our tense derby victory over Northampton back in November.  He has never shown a yellow card to a Tigers player and only once refereed us in a loss, the unforgettable thrashing from Saracens at Welford Road during last seasons World Cup.  Garner was in the same school year as Andy Goode and James Grindal at King Henry VII School in Coventry, surprised I've never seen that mentioned before really.

Tigers:
15 Mathew Tait
14 Scott Hamilton
13 Andy Forsyth
12 Matt Cornwell
11 Vereniki Goneva
10 Dan Bowden
9 Micky Young
1 Boris Stankovich
2 George Chuter
3 Logovi'i Mulipola
4 Rob Andrew
5 Harry Wells
6 Brett Deacon (c)
7 Richard Thorpe
8 Thomas Waldrom

Replacements
16 Rob Hawkins
17 Ryan Bower
18 Fraser Balmain
19 Matt Hubbart
20 George Oliver
21 Sam Harrison
22 Andy Symons
23 Geordan Murphy 

Llanelli Scarlets name 9 of the side that conceded a try bonus point against Sale last week, other than that I have very little to say as I've barely heard of any of them.  Andy Fenby was impressive for Newcastle whilst he was studying in the North East 3 seasons ago scoring 2 tries in 3 games whilst Sione Timani is a Tongan test player previously with Carmarthen Quins who was selected ahead of Steve Mafi for the 2011 World Cup, which must make him a pretty decent player really!  Kieran Murphy bagged a brace on his debut against Leicester in the LV Cup two years ago so is another one to keep an eye out for.

Scarlets
15 Gareth Owen
14 Kyle Evans
13 Nick Reynolds
12 Adam Warren
11 Andy Fenby
10 Owen Williams
9 Aled Davies
1 Rhodri Jones
2 Emyr Phillips (c)
3 Jacobie Adriaanse
4 Jake Ball
5 Johan Snyman
6 Sione Timani
7 Lewis Rawlins
8 Kieran Murphy
Replacements: Kirby Myhill, Shaun Hopkins, Deacon Manu, Richard Kelly, Duane Eager, Gareth Davies, Aled Thomas, Dale Ford

The match kicks off on Sunday at 13:35 and is live on S4C, Sky channel 134, with commentary in English on the red button.

Its All Welsh to Me, LV Cup fixtures confirmed

The dates and kick off times for Tigers final two LV Cup group games have been confirmed.  In Round 3 Tigers are at home to Wasps; the match will be a rare treat a 3 O'clock kick off on a Saturday!  Round 4 will see Tigers to travel to West Wales to take on Llanelli Scarlets, a match which will be broadcast on Welsh language channel S4C.  The game has been moved to a Sunday lunchtime, kicking off at 1 O'clock, to act as a warm up to the Italy France match in Rome later in the afternoon.

Felly, cael tynnu esgyrn i fyny ar eich Cymraeg!

Round 3
Saturday 26th January 15:00 Leicester v Wasps

Round 4
Sunday 3rd February 13:00 Llanelli Scarlets v Leicester

LV Cup Groups & Fixtures Announced

Today the LV Cup groups and fixtures were announced:

Pool 1: Harlequins, Exeter, Gloucester, Newport

Pool 2: Leicester, Sale, Worcester, Cardif

Pool 3: Saracens, London Irish, Wasps, Llanelli

Pool 4: Northampton, Bath, London Welsh, Ospreys

Pool 1 plays Pool 4 and Pool 2 plays Pool 4.

Tigers fixtures:

Saracens away November 10th
London Irish Home November 17th
Wasps Home January 26th
Llanelli away February 2nd