Same Old Tigers, Always Cheating?

It’s become part of the sporting folklore, a myth as old as time, Leicester cheat.  You hear it everywhere, from crazy message board conspiracy theorists to allegedly professional pundits.  We’re successful because we cheat and give away shed loads of penalties.  But is there any truth to that?

We never see any analysis of penalties, occasionally we might see a table of yellow cards, but you never see the number of offences each team commits.  Until now.  ESPN.co.uk keeps the penalty count for each Premiership game; using the power of addition I’ve crunched the numbers and found out whether that old wives tale has any basis in fact.
 

Frustratingly for a complete data set one match, Saracens v London Irish at Allianz Park, is missing.  Therefore Saracens and London Irish’s number are averaged over 21 rather than 22 games. 

From this we can see that the two dirtiest teams were the bottom half strugglers Gloucester and Irish, averaging around 13 penalties a game.  Tigers on the other hand were the second cleanest team in the league, only Mike Ford’s Bath conceded fewer penalties during the season.

On the other side of the ledger it was Bath who was the most fouled against, with Leicester and Harlequins almost inseparable behind them in second and third place respectively.  Myth busted.  Tigers are more sinned against than sinners.

Across the league overall penalties conceded average to be very similar.  Roughly speaking a side, over the season, will give away between 10 and 13 penalties per match; the majority average 11 per game.  Penalties awarded are a little bit more dispersed with the top 5 almost 2 penalties per game better off than the middle 5. 

Over the whole season Bath gained 92 net penalties, i.e. more than they conceded, interestingly Worcester were the only side outside that top 5 with a positive balance.  Tigers were second with a positive balance of 52 net penalties.  At the wrong end were Gloucester (-52), Wasps (-53) and Irish (-65).

The interesting bit is when the yellow cards get dished out.  You’d think that the most befouled teams would gain the most from the referees, which would make sense as yellow cards were introduced to deal with persistent infringement, and that as penalties conceded are very flat so would be yellow cards.

But no.  The yellow card numbers go haywire.  If we take yellow cards per penalty Tigers had to foul 14.4 times to see yellow but Exeter were allowed to get away with 34.3 penalties before losing a man.  Harlequins conceded 30 more penalties than the Tigers but saw 3 fewer yellows, whilst the Tigers cheat myth seems to be false the one about Harlequins being the RFU’s darlings seems to be borne out.  For the opposition to get a yellow card against Tigers or Saracens they need to give away 21.8 penalties but the Quins need only 12.8 penalties to gain a 10 minute advantage.

Despite Tigers running such a positive balance of net penalties (+52) we have seen 3 more players sin binned than the opposition.  Harlequins on the other hand have a net balance of only +22 but have 9 fewer players sin binned than their opponents.  Given how tight the playoff race was, and how tight the play offs promise to be, it does not seem farfetched that effectively playing a whole match extra against 14 men gives Quins an advantage.

Home and away differences are also apparent.  Only 3 teams conceded more at home than they were awarded, and Tigers concede 40% fewer penalties at home compared to away.  Over the whole league the away side has to concede 3 fewer penalties to get a yellow card than the home side.  The yellow card numbers are again striking and not good reading ahead of our semi final; at home Tigers see yellow every 22^nd penalty offence but away that drops to 12, the lowest in the league.

One final really stand out result.  Andrew Small has refereed 19 games this season and seen 14 away wins.  How come he couldn’t get our semi?

Referees named for European Encounters

Two Irish officials have been named by ERC for Tigers last two pool fixtures in this years Heineken Cup.

Former Munster winger John Lacey will referee Tigers for the first time when he takes charge of the crucial Round 5 match away to the Ospreys.  He refereed the Ospreys loss away in Treviso earlier this season and has also refereed them in two other games, both victories for the Welsh side.  He is not scared of a yellow card having given over 60 in only 50 games.  What price a card turning this game and both sides seasons?

George Clancy is named for Tigers home game the next weekend against Toulouse.  This will be Clancy's 4th visit to Welford Road previously refereeing the earlier pool game at home to Treviso, the thrilling 41 all draw at home to Gloucester  and the 46-10 win against Llanelli Scarlets in 2010.

Clancy In as Ref for Sunday

Pascal Gauzere has been withdrawn as referee for Sunday's game with Treviso, he will instead referee Munster against Saracens on Saturday.  

Filling the breach will be George Clancy, who refereed England's historic win against New Zealand last Saturday.  It is Clancy's 3rd visit to Welford Road, his first was a bonus point win against Llanelli in Ocotber 2010 and the second the famous 41 all draw with Gloucester in April 2011.

ABC Thoughts on the Wasps Match

A.  Cockerill’s subs strategy stupefies supporters

Ed Slater and Geordan Murphy were both left on the bench for the whole game.  This just baffles me.  These are two guys who can change the shape of a game; particularly Murphy who comes into his own in the international periods supporting the younger players.  We saw that away to Saracens last year, his tactical kicking would have been a tremendous crutch for Ford and his calming presence at the back and under the high ball might have given the backs the confidence to play more.  

He is the Club Captain; if he is fit he must play in such a match, if he is injured why is he even on the bench?  Slater’s case is slightly different as he was behind two players playing very well, but he put in a near as damn it Man of the Match performance against the Maori and could have come on in the backrow if Deacon and Kitchener were deemed to be playing that well.

B.  Away kits are becoming a laughing stock

Why can Tigers quite happily play in their home kit against the black kit of Toulouse and the Maori then 12 days later have to wear their change strip for the visit to Wasps?  Equally South Africa’s dark green has never necessitated a change of colour when facing the All Blacks.  This frivolous use of away kits is damaging to the brand of the Premiership, the casual man of Wigston switching on wants to see The Stripes as do the floating supporters of other sides.  The clash of Cherry ‘n’ White versus Blue, Black and White is evocative of the great games of the past as is the black of Wasps versus the Green, Scarlet and White of Leicester.  Worse than merely weakening the appeal of the matches they sometimes cause more problems than they solve.  You watch Tigers face Bath at the Wreck later this year, the “clash” of blue and green will mean that Tigers will wear their away kit, which is also blue!  Save the away kit for genuine clashes such as London Irish and Northampton.

C.  Davy shows why ex-players don’t make good referees.

This might sound obvious but good referees make good elite referees, good elite players do not.  The RFU seems to have become obsessed with recently retired players taking up the whistle and fast tracking them to the elite panel because they “know the game”.  Surely the universal scorn in which Sean Davy is held puts paid to that notion?  Davy played in the top tier for his local side Bedford yet shows no empathy for the game at all and in many cases shows less knowledge than the referees who have never played the game.  You don’t have to be a carpenter to know a chair has one leg shorter than another.  Like teams referees should be promoted and relegated on merit, encouraging former players into officiating is positive as increasing the pool at the bottom is always good but fast tracking them ahead of other, better, referees is hardly a recipe for a strong corps of competent referees.